A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
